There is no fan I know of, including my 11 year old son, Sahil, who does not constantly calculate the possibilities of his team's performance, and of his team winning the World Cup. We do it in different ways, but not necessarily in a less accurate manner. To every person who criticizes the market because illiterate peasants do not know calculus to calculate marginal costs, remember the simple truism - they act as if they knew calculus. Same with probability forecasts - no rocket science to come up with a legitimate, defensible view. Which is why the match-fixing scandal was such a shock to sports fans (excluding the sport administrators and some players). How dare they mess up our innocent fun.
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