Economic reforms, initiated by Manmohan Singh’s team in 1991, is no longer news. All the Finance Ministers, and their political patrons, have jumped on the bandwagon. Differences between the men and the boys is in their zeal and implementation – intentions are unquestioned.
There are two kinds of ratings that are in the news today – the ratings of a mutual fund , namely Mom and Pop’s very own, UTI-64, and ESPN cricket ratings, which is desperately trying to get Mom and Pop status. It just so happens that financial markets and cricket are two major interests of mine, but that is not the only reason for examining them jointly. It is rather recognition of the fact that mutual fund ratings move vast amounts of money; and cricket ratings move hearts, and minds, and sponsorships. And just like mutual fund performances, and ratings, are regulated by SEBI, so it might be time for cricket ratings to be regulated!
India’s macro-indicators present not one but several Hindu constants for the last twenty one years: money supply growth, more constant than the northern star, on robotic control at 17 percent per annum; industrial production growth, on automatic pilot at 6-7 percent; consolidated fiscal deficit, or government profligacy, constant at 10 percent; investment, constant at 23-24 percent; GDP growth, constant at 5.7 percent. It is difficult for analysts to decipher any relationship from several time-series of constants, though the desire to keep one’s job has led many a researcher to estimate models of Indian macro-behavior.
No matter what index is used, the Indian economy is showing zero inflation. The annualized seasonally adjusted (SA) figures for three measures of inflation for the latest quarter are as follows, (unadjusted figures in brackets): WPI, 1.1 and (2.6); WPI, manufacturing, -1.0 and (-0.1); CPI, 1.6 and (5.6). Non-farm bank credit has also slowed to a crawl, and at 7 % (unadjusted is at 1.1 %) it is at one of the lowest levels in the last decade; and industrial production is more likely at zero growth rather than the year on year figure of 2.5 percent, or the latest quarterly (not seasonally adjusted) figure of –6.4 percent.
There is many a woman who has lost her fortune, if not her reputation, by betting that the Euro would be a strong currency, and whose value “should” be around 1.25 US dollars. I myself had made what seemed like a safe prediction last November when I stated that parity with the dollar should be achieved by mid-June 2001. That date has come and gone, but the euro keeps lumbering at its lows.
Every major religion in the world recognizes the phenomenon of Evil. But rationalists have a problem with understanding its force, or its presence. They look for a logical explanation. It does not take much rationality to recognize evil leaders and their movements: e.g. Hitler, Stalin, Idi Amin, Pol Pot, Milosevic, Taliban and Osman bin Laden. There is little point in arguing about the “provocation” for evil. Yet, some rationalist intellectuals have admonished the US for its lack of understanding of terrorism. For example, in this very space three days ago, Bharat Bhushan wrote: “Terrorism flourishes in a cesspool of grievances…If the whole world is to be homogenized relentlessly in the image of America, then how will the differences of religion, culture and indigenous ways of life survive? The McDonaldisation of the world may not be the answer that people outside America are seeking. The US needs to recognize this”.
The Iraqi incursion into Kuwait occurred on Aug. 3rd. 1990; almost six months later, Jan. 15, 1991, the US attacked Iraq. Massacres of Muslims in Bosnia and Kosovo were occurring on a daily basis for several years before it was liberated by America; this inhuman delay was entirely the responsibility of “peace-loving” Europeans. US and Britain would have gone in considerably earlier but were “restrained” from doing so – by the Europeans, and knee-jerk anti-Americans who felt that because of American mistakes in Vietnam, Cambodia and the Middle East, it had no right, moral or otherwise, to help save the Muslims from the genocidal Milosevic.
It is a month since the horrific attacks on freedom, and the campaign to get at the terrorists is well underway. The question remains – what can be expected to happen to the world economy over the next year.
Make no mistake about it; the first decade of the new millennium will be hailed as India’s – a decade in which not only will India clock the highest per-capita growth rate among all major economies (obviously including China) but also when the level of this growth will exceed 7.5 percent per annum.
The Indian reaction to the history defining speech by General Musharraf has been one of grudging approval, at best. Can one imagine any political leader in the world openly, in front of world television, taking on a domestic fundamentalist fringe minority in the manner Musharraf has done? Vajpayee – can one imagine him taking on the Vishwa Hindu Parishad, or the RSS? Why, they are even part of his government. Bill Clinton taking on the loony environmentalists and the anti-globalizers – why, they were part of his government. Or George Bush taking on the fundamental right? There is some reasoned speculation that the anti-abortionists in the US were responsible for the Anthrax murders; it is all quiet on this front in the worldwide anti-terrorist campaign. Or Arafat taking on the terrorists in his midst? Or Shoron taking on the fanatics in his government and his party, if not himself?
